A Closer Look at the Law School Application Spike

Kate Sargent*

Even in the midst of a sluggish economy, slow job growth, and rising concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) altering the practice of law, the number of law school applications has surged over the past two years. As of October 2025, the total number of applicants was up 33 percent from the previous year.¹ Although early applicant data is volatile, experts predict the applicant pool will taper to an increase of approximately 20 percent.² Given that last year’s applicant pool was already up 18 percent over the previous cycle³, this is a notable jump. However, the surge in applications is less a sign of prosperity than a reflection of a highly polarized political climate and an effort by post-graduates to delay entry into a difficult job market. At the same time, prospective students are entering a legal job market shaped by AI-related hiring uncertainty and rising educational debt that may complicate the stability many are seeking.  

Why the Surge is Happening

Experts have identified several factors driving the recent increase in law school applications, including the current political climate and a weak entry-level job market for college graduates.⁴ The Trump administration has been involved in a number of high-profile legal disputes that have proceeded through the courts during both of his terms and throughout his 2020 candidacy.⁵ In 2016, the first “Trump Bump” occurred, as individuals turned to law schools to engage more directly with the legal system and political institutions.⁶ Trump’s second term may be prompting an even greater surge, as mass layoffs at federal agencies lead some former employees to return to school.⁷ Areas of law such as constitutional law and civil rights have moved to the forefront of national discourse, motivating individuals to pursue legal education in order to engage with public issues and advocate for their values.⁸  

Law school has historically served as a place to wait out economic uncertainty, with similar application surges following the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.⁹ The current labor market has been described as “low-hire, low-fire,” resulting in fewer opportunities for entry-level workers.¹⁰ Employers remain hesitant to expand hiring due to factors such as tariffs, high interest rates, and AI implementation.¹¹ According to an ongoing study conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, unemployment for recent college graduates is rising, currently at 5.6 percent compared to the general unemployment rate of 4.3 percent.¹² As a college degree no longer guarantees stable employment, many post-graduates are turning to law school in search of improved job prospects.¹³ 

Recent changes to the Law School Admission Test (LSAT) may also be contributing to the increase in applications. In August 2024, the Logic Games section, often considered the most challenging portion of the exam, was removed.¹⁴ However, research conducted by the Law School Admission Council before modifying the test indicated the change would have virtually no impact on overall scoring.¹⁵  

What Applicants Are Walking Into 

Although many post-graduates view law school as a path toward better job prospects, entry-level legal positions are subject to many of the same market pressures affecting other white-collar industries. At first glance, the potential for employment after law school looks optimistic with the employment rate for the class of 2024 reaching a record high of 93.4 percent.¹⁶ The legal employment market, however, tends to follow broader economic trends and often lags behind.¹⁷ As a result, individuals attending law school to avoid the current labor market may encounter similar hiring slowdowns upon graduation.  

The increasing use of AI in legal work may further reduce the availability of entry-level positions in the legal profession.¹⁸ Unlike prior economic downturns, in which entry-level positions rebounded over time, junior associate roles may be permanently reduced as firms turn to AI to increase efficiency and lower costs.¹⁹ AI tools now perform tasks such as contract analysis, due diligence, document review, and legal research, responsibilities that have been traditionally assigned to junior attorneys at large firms, in significantly less time.²⁰ While the long-term impact of AI on the practice of law remains uncertain, its adoption makes it an important consideration when evaluating both the surge in law school applications and the legal job market these applicants are likely to enter after they graduate.   

The challenges posed by a surge of law school applications and a hiring slowdown upon graduation are compounded by the student loan crisis. The average law school graduate carries approximately $137,500 in student loan debt, and 85 percent of law students graduate with debt.²¹ Previously, the federal Graduate PLUS loan program allowed students to borrow up to the full cost of attendance.²² However, beginning in July 2026, these loans will be capped at $50,000 per year, an amount that will be insufficient for many law students.²³ As a result, prospective law students may be forced to rely on private loans, which often carry higher interest rates and lack income-driven repayment options or loan forgiveness programs.²⁴ 

Despite these pressures, law school remains an intellectually rigorous and formative experience. It provides students with a deeper understanding of legal institutions, individual rights, and the role of the law in public life. For many graduates, the professional values and critical thinking skills developed during law school endure beyond short-term market fluctuations. In that sense, the decision to pursue law school today reflects a mix of practical concern and a genuine commitment to engaging with the law.  

*Kate Sargent, J.D. Candidate, University of St. Thomas School of Law, Class of 2026 (Senior Editor).

1. Sudha Setty, Too Soon for Predictions, but the 2026 Admission Cycle is Starting Strong, LSAC (Oct. 13, 2025), https://www.lsac.org/blog/too-soon-predictions-2026-admission-cycle-starting-strong [https://perma.cc/9GWE-ZP8Z].  ↩︎
2. Karen Sloan, US Law School Applicants Increase 33%, Boosting Competition, Reuters (Oct. 15, 2025), https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/us-law-school-applicants-increase-33-boosting-competition-2025-10-15/ %5Bhttps://perma.cc/KA87-Q52P%5D. ↩︎
3. Setty, supra note 1.  ↩︎
4. Sloan, supra note 2. ↩︎
5. Jesus Mesa, What the Surge in Law School Applications Says About the Economy, Newsweek (Mar. 18, 2025, 12:01 ET), https://www.newsweek.com/what-surge-law-school-applications-says-about-economy-2046146 %5Bhttps://perma.cc/SN6K-UDEZ%5D. ↩︎
6. Id.  ↩︎
7. Bill Hutchinson, ‘Trump Bump,’ Iffy Economy Cited for Huge Law School Application Spike: Experts, ABC News (Mar. 25, 2025, 18:00 CT), https://abcnews.com/US/trump-bump-iffy-economy-cited-huge-law-school/story?id=120126667 %5Bhttps://perma.cc/7LE6-K7DK%5D. ↩︎
8. Kaplan, Kaplan Survey: Another Fierce Law School Admissions Cycle Looms Large, Driven by Politics (Oct. 8, 2025), https://kaplan.com/about/press-media/law-school-admissions-cycle-politics [https://perma.cc/W5LQ-75K9].  ↩︎
9. Mesa, supra note 5.  ↩︎
10. Janelle Jones & Nia Law, The Entry-Level Job Market Is the Worst It’s Been in 37 Years. Stop Blaming Gen Z, Fortune (Mar. 21, 2026, 05:30 ET), https://fortune.com/2026/03/21/entry-level-jobs-gen-z-not-their-fault/ %5Bhttps://perma.cc/X2MP-JJML%5D.  ↩︎
11. Trina Paul, As New Grads Face a Challenging Job Market, Law School Applications Surge to Highest Levels in Over a Decade, Investopedia (Sept. 18, 2025, 12:58 ET), https://www.investopedia.com/as-new-grads-face-a-challenging-job-market-law-school-applications-surge-to-highest-levels-in-over-a-decade-11808837 [https://perma.cc/Z9XV-CLYE].  ↩︎
12. The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, Fed. Rsrv. Bank of N.Y. (Feb. 4, 2026), https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#–:explore:unemployment [https://perma.cc/FJ2U-AQTN].  ↩︎
13. Jones & Law, supra note 10.  ↩︎
14. Mesa, supra note 5; Susan Krinsky, What to Expect Starting With the August 2024 LSAT, LSAC (Oct. 18, 2023), https://www.lsac.org/blog/what-to-expect-starting-with-august-2024-lsat [https://perma.cc/QPH8-GACP].  ↩︎
15. Krinsky, supra note 14.  ↩︎
16. James Leipold, How Should We Think About Record-Breaking Employment for Law School Graduates?, LSAC (Aug. 13, 2025), https://www.lsac.org/blog/how-should-we-think-about-record-breaking-employment-law-school-graduates %5Bhttps://perma.cc/SCK8-Q7JH%5D.  ↩︎
17. Id. ↩︎
18. Jake Angelo, Law School Admissions Expert Sees ‘Dangerous One-Two Punch’ as Gen Z Seeks Shelter from the AI Hiring Storm in 6-Figure Debt and Law-Degree Lifeboat, Fortune (Jan. 26, 2026, 13:44 ET), https://fortune.com/2026/01/26/is-it-worth-it-to-go-to-law-school-ai-hiring-entry-level/ [https://perma.cc/65ZD-2J9S].  ↩︎
19. Id.  ↩︎
20. Bruce Braude, AI and the Legal Profession: Preparing for a 50% Shock, Deloitte (June 9, 2025), https://legalbriefs.deloitte.com/post/10 2kdm3/ai-and-the-legal-profession-preparing-for-a-50-shock [https://perma.cc/5GET-LKWJ].   ↩︎
21. Melanie Hanson, Average Law School Debt, Educ. Data Initiative (Mar. 3, 2026), https://educationdata.org/average-law-school-debt [https://perma.cc/XQZ7-5CHP].  ↩︎
22.  Jocelyn Salguero & Michele Zampini, Provisions Affecting Higher Education in the Reconciliation Law, The Inst. for Coll. Access & Success (July 15, 2025), https://ticas.org/affordability-2/provisions-affecting-higher-education-in-the-reconciliation-law/#:~:text=E ducation%20Tax%20Provisions-,New%20Limits%20on%20Loan%20Access%20for%20Graduate%20Students%20&%20Parents%20of,borrowing%20caps%20for%20three%20years [https://perma.cc/P2MT-JCUX].   ↩︎
23. Id.; Nancy Conneely, The Impact of Capping Graduate Loans on Law Students, Access Lex Inst. (May 6, 2025), https://www.accesslex.org/news-tools-and-resources/impact-capping-graduate-loans-law-students#:~:text=For%20many%20law% 20students%2C%20the,degrees%20using%20federal%20student%20loans [https://perma.cc/ZB99-EVJU]. ↩︎
24. Id.  ↩︎